Imputation of precipitation data in northeast Brazil.

This article evaluates four statistical methods of multiple imputation to fill in the missing data of daily precipitation in Northeast Brazil (NEB). We used a daily database collected by 94 rain gauges distributed in NEB from January 1, 1986 to December 31, 2015. The methods were: random sampling from the observed values; predictive mean matching, Bayesian linear regression; and bootstrap expectation maximization algorithm (BootEm). To compare these methods, missing data from the original series were initially excluded. The next step was to create three scenarios for each method, in which 10\%, 20\% and 30\% of the data were removed at random. The BootEM method presented the best statistical results. With the average bias between the complete series and the imputed series values ranging between -0.91 and 1.30 mm/day. The values of the Pearson correlation ranging between 0.96, 0.91 and 0.86 respectively for 10\%, 20\% and 30\% missing data. We conclude that this is an adequate method for the reconstruction of historical precipitation data in NEB.

The effect of pelage, background, and distance on predator detection and the evolution of primate color vision.

Primates' predators, such as carnivore mammals, usually rely on camouflage to increase proximity to prey and start a predatory attempt. Camouflage depends not only on the color pattern presented by a predator's pelage but also on the background scene in which the hunting takes place. Another factor that influences camouflage effectiveness is prey's color vision since a given camouflage strategy might not work for all visual phenotypes. Still, little research has been made on the effect of primate visual phenotype on predator detection. Here, we investigate the effects of natural pelages, background scenarios, visual phenotypes, and detection distances on predator detection. We used photographs of taxidermized carnivores (ocelots, cougars, and lesser grisons) as detection stimuli, taken in three different natural scenarios (forest, savanna, and grassland), and at two viewing distances (near and far). On a touchscreen monitor, sets of four images (only one containing a hidden animal) were randomly presented to 39 human males (19 dichromats and 20 trichromats). We found that trichromats, when compared to dichromats, present a lower latency and a higher accuracy of carnivore detection for some conditions tested. We also found that pelage color, background scenario, and detection distance interact to influence the effectiveness of camouflage. Our results suggest that trichromacy might be even more advantageous for carnivore detection than thought before, since it facilitates detection of mammals with diverse pelage colorations, in environments with different phytophysiognomies, and at longer distances. We also propose that the higher rates of dichromacy found in modern human societies could have resulted from a relaxation in predation.